February’s looking good

Now that Winter Storm Jonas is history, industry analysts are predicting big numbers when February light vehicle sales are reported next Tuesday.

Forecast-Weather-Map-Tritignomi

Sales that were lost last month to heavy snows and frigid temperatures will give a boost to total deliveries this month with the result that this could be the best February since 2000.

Two of the top forecasters, Edmonds.com and Kelley Blue Book’s KBB.com, look for total industry sales of between 1.35 million and 1.37 million. Being the third opinion that we are, we averaged the two.

AVERAGE ANALYST FEBRUARY 2016 SALES FORECAST
Manufacturer Forecast Feb-15 Change Jan-16 Change
General Motors 245,463 231,379 6.1% 203,745 20.5%
Ford Motor Company 206,161 179,671 14.7% 172,478 19.5%
Toyota Motor Sales 192,680 180,467 6.8% 161,283 19.5%
FCA US LLC 179,362 163,587 9.6% 155,037 15.7%
Nissan North America 123,154 118,436 4.0% 105,734 16.5%
American Honda 123,586 105,466 17.2% 100,497 23.0%
Hyundai/Kia 100,955 96,535 4.6% 83,316 21.2%
Total Industry 1,362,252 1,255,485 8.5% 1,144,989 19.0%

The crystal ball says Ford, FCA (Fiat Chrysler) and Honda will pick up market share with Ford gaining the most, about 0.82 points. General Motors looks to be the big loser with a loss of 0.41 points. Ford is also projected to rack up the most additional sales, about 26,500 compared to last year.

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